Ireland: where now for the peace process?
On Saturday 27 October, at a UUP Council meeting, David Trimble, fearing a defeat at the hands of No Unionists around Jeffrey Donaldson, banned Sinn Fein ministers from attending the North-South ministerial meeting, part of the Belfast agreement, planned for early November.
This ban is to hold until more visable signs of de-commissioning takes place. Sinn Fein were outraged, all the more so when Ahern refused to condemn Trimble, and in fact appeared to endorse his decision, by agreeing a meeting not under the umbrella of the North-south Mininsterial Council.
This informal face-saving bi-lateral meeting between Bairbre de Brun and Michael Martin, both Ministers for Health, did take place on Friday November 3rd.
So where does all this leave the peace process?
Like all the other blips, hiccups and obstacles from the impasse when Trimble refused to take his seat at the first assembly meeting to last February's suspension of the executive, it is likely that the various parties will ride out this storm.
All the parties, including the Ulster Unionists, are committed to the Belfast Agreement. It is likely that more movement will be made on Patten, in the form of more visable de-militarisation in South Armagh. Just as Sinn Fein moved on de-commissioning in July by sealing dumps in the presence of members of the De Chastelain commission, the scene is set for more movement on this.
The dissident Real IRA have gained ground and grown to some extent in recent months, and have the capacity to stage a limited bombing campaign. However, they operate in a climate immeasurably worse than that the IRA were operating in in the late 80's, and are unlikely to prove a major threat to the peace process, in the short term.
Ireland: British bow to unionists again and suspend assembly