Venezuela: Chavez wins recall vote and delivers blow to Bush's plans
30 August 2004

Mid August saw President Hugo Chavez win a crushing victory over the opposition's attempt to oust him in a recall referendum. Chavez won 59% of the popular vote compared to the opposition's 42%; more Venezuelans voted than ever before with a turnout of over 70%.

Chavez came to power in 1999 promising a "Bolivarian revolution". He won support from the poor and oppressed by campaigning against the corrupt and bloated oligarchy in Venezuela. They had spent decades lining their pockets from oil revenues while leaving the vast mass of the population in poverty – an estimated 80% of the population lives below the poverty line.

This was the third serious attempt made at ousting the democratically elected President since he came to power. In April 2002 a military coup seized the President and put in their own puppet. Within days mass demonstrations by the poor from the barrios (shanty towns) led to a split in the armed forces and Chavez was re-instated.

The opposition then launched a business shutdown at the end of 2002. A two month "general strike" ensued which managed through the co-operation of top and middle managers, to shut down the vital oil industry – Petroleos de Venzuela (PDVSA). Venezuela is the fifth largest oil producer in the world and oil accounts for 80% of its revenue. Finally using the military and with the support of the progressive oil workers the strike was defeated and collapsed in February 2003.

Having failed to oust Chavez on the streets or with the military the opposition now turned to the "constitutional" option. Chavez had introduced a very democratic aspect to his new constitution adopted in 2000 – any elected official could be recalled if 20% of the electorate signed up to a petition calling for a referendum. Had the opposition won on August 15 new elections would have been called within 30 days. The defeat means Chavez's term now runs until February 2007.

The referendum was proof that both Chavez and the masses in Venezuela had learned the lessons of the coup and reactionary strike. The campaign involved millions of people in mass political campaigning. Voter registration drives were launched deep in the rural areas and in the shanty towns. Citizenship drives enfranchised "immigrants" who had lived in the country for generations without rights or votes.

But this alone would not have delivered Chavez victory. The poorest sectors of the community new that the social reforms introduced under the Chavez Presidency would have been the first things to go if the opposition got their claws on power.

Chavez had used the failed strike to break the opposition's strangle hold over PDVSA. Around 18,000 top and middle managers. and some workers. had been sacked from PDVSA for refusing to return to work. They had been replaced by promoting workers to fill their roles and bringing back retired managers. (This change was registered in the campaign when the new blue collar oil workers union threatened strike action if Chavez was ousted in the referendum.) Chavez could now use the massive oil revenues, bolstered by rising world prices, to finance his social and poverty relief programmes. This year alone PDVSA has allocated 30% of its investment funds to these social programmes – around $2 billion dollars.

In every small village and shanty town education and health programmes have been launched. In Venezuela, despite its enormous oil wealth, only 16 out of every 100 school students attending primary school finish secondary school. The education "missions" have set out to change this, setting up new schools in the poorest areas and further education classes for the estimated 1.5 million who missed out on secondary schooling. This new education programme has been greeted with massive enthusiasm by the poor.

Alongside this go the health "missions". An estimated 11,000 new local health clinics have been set up in the poor areas offering free medicine. 10,000 Cuban medical doctors help staff these clinics, and in return Venezuela provides Cuba with discounted oil. Not surprisingly the poor of Venezuela turned out in their millions to register a vote for the government that promised to retain and extend these services.

Unsurprisingly the world bourgeoisie has been outraged by such "underhand tactics" – the British Economist accused Chavez of "buying votes" in the run up to the referendum. After the victory, even this house journal for neo-liberalism felt it necessary to observe that "it was another manifestation of poorer Latin American's loss of faith in the free market reforms that swept the region in the 80s and 90s". Noting that perhaps the benefits of these privatisations had failed to reach those "at the bottom of the heap"!

Chavez's victory is an undoubted blow to Bush's plans for Latin America. The Venezuelan President represents a rallying point of opposition to the USA's neo-liberal policies, which is why the US State Department has backed every attempt to get rid of him, constitutional or not.

Chavez has destroyed plans for privatising the PDVSA and has shown how state directed industry can be used to benefit the poor not just the rich. He has been a constant critic of the planned Free Trade Association of the Americas (FTAA) – the USA's attempt to bind the Latin American countries into a "free trade" bloc that benefits the multi-nationals – indeed he declared the idea "dead" at a recent international meeting.

He has given political and material aid to Cuba to the fury of Washington. He has also set about rallying other Latin American countries to an alternative trading bloc – developing economic links with Mercosur, setting up joint fuel enterprises with Argentina, and offering oil discounts to Caribbean and Central American countries, aimed at reducing their political dependence on the USA.

For all these reasons Chavez remains target number one for Washington. Already a former Venezuelan President living in Miami has suggested the way forward is to liquidate Chavez and establish an authoritarian government. Bush has to be more circumspect – Venezuela after all supplies 13% of the USA's oil. An illegal ousting after a demonstration of a clearly democratic mandate, endorsed by the Organisation of American States and Jimmy Carter amongst others would certainly lead to an explosion in Venezuela and beyond.

Chavez has won himself a breathing space. But if the masses in Venezuela do not use their victory to drive forward against the forces of counter revolution and privilege, they will find that it is only a breathing space. Without breaking the power of the capitalist oligarchy for good, placing all the resources of the country at the disposal of the workers and peasants, they will face another, perhaps more violent, attempt to remove the small gains they have made so far. For this they will need more than "Bolivarian circles" tied to Chavez. They will need their own mass organisations of workers and peasants, armed to defend themselves against the coup plotters and to take the power for themselves.