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Northern Ireland and the British elections

The recent General Election results in Northern Ireland saw a humiliating defeat for the the Ulster Unionist Party at the the hands of their Unionist rivals the Democratic Unionist Party. Their local election vote was also significantly down by 5 per cent. David Trimble the UUP leader and a key player in the Peace Process lost his seat and resigned as leader. The DUP now has a virtual monopoly of the Unionist vote, 9 Westminster seats as against the UUP one.

Sinn Fein has 5 seats as opposed to the SDLP’s 3 and will be annoyed that they did not win Foyle constituency where the SDLP leader was standing. However they increased their vote by 2.6%, won Newry and Armagh and will be relieved that after all the flack they’ve received their vote actually held up very well. Non-the-less Sinn Fein does not have a monopoly of the nationalist vote in the same way as the DUP has on the Unionist vote.

What impact will this result have on the Good Friday Agreement and power sharing?

It will place enormous pressure on Sinn Fein and IRA to go the ’extra mile’ and disband the IRA. The pressure will come from Dublin, from US government, from Blair and of course from the DUP that has won a thumping majority within the Unionist community on the basis of not sharing power with Sinn Fein.

The DUP would clearly prefer a Stormont style majority rule. Disbanding the IRA would put pressure on them to share power with Sinn Fein. They have taken positions alongside of Sinn Fein on the Assembly Executive before. However the DUP did not receive its huge vote to share power but rather to keep Sinn Fein out of power! They are not likely to change their minds for the foreseeable future and indeed would inevitably question any dramatic act of decommissioning/disbandment for its lack of thoroughness or truthfulness.

Whatever happens it will not be an easy ride for Sinn Fein in the coming months. They admit that they felt under pressure from their own supporters over the McCartney murder. They will be wary of the first signs of an electoral challenge from independent republicans. Six independent republicans stood in the local elections and did not poll very well. But significantly they had the confidence and the encouragement to stand. The IRA however will not want a humiliating surrender as the price to pay for power sharing.

Whilst they wrestle with this dilemma let us not forget how far they have already appeased Unionism and the British government. The Good Friday Agreement formalised the Unionist veto that is the bedrock of the mini-state. That means the Unionists have the final say over any fundamental dismantling of this sectarian, artificial state. Despite a ceasefire, which has lasted, for around a decade there has been no change to Unionist controlled police and security forces. Also the GFA has not resolved the main social injustice the republican struggle was based on – the denial of the right to self-determination for the Irish people as a whole.

On the basis of these retreats from Republicanism, socialists would welcome an alternative, which spelled out a continuing fight against the northern sectarian state and Britain’s support for it. Socialists would welcome the development of mass struggles within the workplaces and communities as part of a fight for a Workers Republic.

How significant then is the Socialist Environmental Alliance vote in Derry which polled 1,649 (3.6 per cent) as an indication of such an alternative?

The SEA led by veteran civil rights campaigner and SWP member Eamonn McCann, polled slightly less than the SEA Assembly election vote in 2003. It also failed to win in the 4 wards in the local elections. But it was a respectable vote, which pushed the UUP into fifth position in the Foyle constituency. More importantly it was a campaign that drew support from people outraged by the intended water privatisation and water charges. The SEA fought for a mass campaign of non-payment and has also stressed working class unity against sectarianism, war and the big business agenda.

On the basis of this record of struggle against the water charges League for the Fifth international supporters in Ireland gave the SEA critical support. However we are astonished that a socialist organisation in northern Ireland of all places can remain silent on the Peace process, the Police, British troops, the northern state, the national question and imperialism, etc, the better perhaps to forge working class unity. Whilst we should always seek to unify all workers in struggle over specific issues, as socialists we also need to understand the role of the state, the bosses’ state, in undermining struggles and fostering divisions within the working class. Indeed the British state is a past master at divide and rule especially when workers are united in struggle.

The SEA should have used the election to tell Derry workers about socialism, about why Sinn Fein were wrong on the Peace Process, about workers defence against loyalist and state attacks and indeed on the water charges should have explained why a mass non-payment campaign – though excellent in itself – also needs indefinite strike action, not just a one day strike in January by the Water Service Group unions, by the organised working class against privatisation to decisively halt the government in its tracks.

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